A social Network Analysis of the Iranian government ( local copy ), by renfro and Deckro, afit, june 2001 Competition in Social Networks: Emergence of a scale-free leadership Structure and Collective efficiency ( local copy ), by Anghel et al, los Alamos National Laboratory, july. 38, 2004 a passel of papers on bayesian and other methods, from Shenoy and others bayesian Artificial Intelligence, tutorial materials from Monash University bayesian Inference and Decision Theory a coherent Framework for Decision making in Natural Resource management ( local copy ), by dorazio,. Geological Survey general Robert. Lee and Modern Decision Theory, by gilster, in au review, mar-Apr 1972, including discussion of battle of Chancellorsville, and brief discussion of Lanchester Equations bayes Theorem Von neumann-Morgenstern Utility Theorem sar bayes, bayesian Models for search rescue evolutionary cognitive neuroscience (ECN) evolutionary cognitive neuroscience laboratory. Rumors have been described as public communications that are infused with private hypotheses about how the world works (Rosnow, 1991 or more specifically, ways of making sense to help us cope with our anxieties and uncertainties (Rosnow, 1988, 2001). On the other hand, as Wert and Salovey (2004b) noted, "almost as many functions of gossip have been argued as writers to write about gossip" (p. More than rumor, gossip tends to have an "inner-circleness" about it, in that it is customarily passed between people who have a common history or shared interests. Allport and Postman called their most far-reaching assertion "the basic law of rumor." It declared that rumor strength (R) will vary with the importance of the subject to the individual concerned (i) times the ambiguity of the evidence pertaining to the topic at hand (a.
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Modeling and Analysis of Clandestine networks ( local copy ), by Clark, afit, march 2005 The methodology is applied to open source data on both money Al qaeda and the jemaah Islamiah (JI) terrorist networks. Key leaders are identified, and leadership profiles are developed. Further, a parametric analysis is performed to compare influence based on individual characteristics, network topology characteristics, and mixtures of network and non-network characteristics. Aggregation Techniques to Characterize social Networks ( local copy ), by Sterling, afit, sep 2004 Social network analysis focuses on modeling and understanding individuals for of interest and their relationships. Aggregation of social networks can be used both to make analysis computationally easier on large networks, and to gain insight in subgroup interactions. Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks ( local copy ), by renfro, afit, dec 2001 Social networks depict the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a flow Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using goal Programming. Value focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli.
Recent research on small worlds shows that remarkably few long ties are needed to give large and highly clustered populations the gps degrees of separation of a random network, in which information can rapidly diffuse. Computational Social Science, culture and the Global War on Terror ( local copy ), by Dr Rebecca goolsby, onr, at naval-Industry r d partnership Conference, 26-29 Jul 05 Iraq: the social Context of ieds ( local copy ), by McFate, in Military review, may-june 2005. Social network analysis (SNA) provides valuable tools for understanding tribal organization and charting the links between tribes and insurgents. Social network analysis is the mapping and measuring of relationships and flows between people, groups, organizations, and computers or other knowledge-processing entities. These methods proved highly successful in capturing Saddam Hussein. The 104th Military Intelligence battalion developed a social network program called Mongo link to chart personal relationships using data from Iraqi informants, military patrols, electronic intercepts, and a range of other sources. One of the 62,500 connections led directly to saddam. Sna resources, such as those under development at the Office of naval Research, identify how to maximally disrupt a network by intervening with the key players and how to maximally spread ideas, misinformation, and materials by seeding key players. By using data about iis members and their personal relationships within the Iraqi tribal network, sna can describe terrorist networks, anticipate their actions, predict their targets, and deny the insurgents the ability to act.
Appendix E: The Insider Threat to Information Systems Appendix F: The Insider Espionage Threat Appendix G: Insider Threat - a theoretical Model Appendix H: Information Assurance cyberecology The Insider Threat to Information Systems, by Shaw, ruby, and Post - posted by the defense security service. Introversion Social and Personal Frustrations Computer Dependency gender Ethical "Flexibility" Reduced loyalty Entitlement Lack of Empathy social Network Analysis (SNA) see also behavior modeling above see also data mining on Air War College gateway to the Internet Analysis of layered Social Networks ( local copy ). To aid this understanding, operations research, sociological, and behavioral theory relevant to the study of social networks are applied, thereby providing theoretical foundations for new methodologies to analyze non-cooperative organizations, defined as those trying to hide their structure or are unwilling to provide information regarding. Networks and Social Dynamics Research Group, cornell University - "studies the effects of network topology on the dynamics of social interaction" - including research topics such as collective action and cultural diffusion How the nsa does "Social Network Analysis" - it's like the kevin Bacon. Diffusion over social and information networks displays a striking regularity that Granovetter (1973) called the strength of weak ties. As Granovetter put it, whatever is to be diffused can reach a larger number of people, and traverse a greater social distance, when passed through weak ties rather than strong. The strength of weak ties is that they tend to be long they connect socially distant locations.
Turvey favors the deductive method of criminal profiling, in which the criminal profiler possesses an open mind; questions all assumptions, premises, and opinions put forth; and demands collaboration regardless of how distinguished the supplier of the input. Here, the emphasis is on the profilers objectivity, self-knowledge (to overcome transference distortions and critical thinking skills—plus an ability to try to understand the needs being satisfied by each behavior of the offender as well as the offenders patterns. Turvey reminds the reader that no two cases are exactly alike; hence, the inductive method, with its "magical" quality, is great for Hollywood but is not the most effective practice. The criminal profilers gut instinct, unless it can be concretely confirmed, tends to lead the criminal profiler astray and wastes valuable time. Not only do criminals think differently than most people, but Turvey points out that behavior has different meanings between cultures and from region to region. Necessarily, behavioral evidence analysis must be a dynamic process, ever-changing as the successful criminals methods become more refined, or deteriorate, over the course of time. Insider Threat Models Understanding the Insider Threat, rand proceedings of a march 2004 Workshop Plenary and breakout sessions discussed various aspects of the problem, including intelligence community system models, vulnerabilities and exploits, attacker models, and event characterization. Research on Mitigating the Insider Threat to Information Systems - 2, rand proceedings of a workshop Held August, 2000 - including Chapter 3 -Insider Threat Models Appendix A: An Insider Threat Model for Model Adversaries Appendix B: An Insider Threat Model for Adversary simulation Appendix.
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Chapter 3 - verbal Conceptual Models and Verbal Cultural Models Chapter 9 - state of the Art with Respect to military needs Chapter 11 - recommendations for Military-Sponsored writing Modeling Research Appendix b - exemplary Scenarios and Vignettes to Illustrate potential Model Uses Appendix. Usstratcom has cocom requirements for increased fidelity on individuals and small groups as it moves forward into the realm of io influence campaigns and Time sensitive targeting (TSP). Comprehensive assessment of Department of Defense human Factors Analysis Methodologies - statement of Work Additionally, the information that supports io hf analysis can be derived largely from open sources. Open source information exploitation has been identified as severely deficient by various sources, including Commissions on Intelligence reform, the 2005 Intelligence reform Act, and the defense Open source council. Development of a repeatable exploitation model in support of io activities using open source can have immediate and far-reaching positive implications both to io and other areas of Intelligence community (IC) interest.
National Air and Space Intelligence center (nasic) Behavioral Influences Analysis division Behavioral Influences Analysis Center (biac), air University dynamic Social Network modeling and Analysis: Workshop Summary and Papers, by Breiger et al, The national Academies Press, 2003 - summarizing workshop held by the Office. Of Penn., including Human behavior modeling anthology modeling terrorist decisionmaking Influences on crowd behavior Value system modeling World/political leader modeling Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, schneider and Post, Editors, usaf counterproliferation Center (CPC) - includes chapters on al-qaeda and. The first, a traditional military approach, treats the organization through a static lens. In the second, parsons general theory of action is used to describe the multiple actions of the various cells and individuals that make-up the al-qaida network. Finally, parsons action frame of reference is further refined using the Organizational learning Systems Model (olsm) to describe al-qaidas ability to learn and adapt. The aim of this paper is to provide recommendations for denying al-qaidas ability to carry out further action and for inhibiting al-qaidas learning processes to ensure it cannot adapt to actions against." Modeling Behavior of the cyber-Terrorist, appendix c of rand study phenomenal cf163, aug. The former involves broad generalizations and/or statistical reasoning—a subjective approach in Turveys view.
Focus groups have provided researchers with valuable insights into conducting complicated and often quantifiable investigations. You may not want to use when (see link for expanded text) The environment is emotionally charged and more information of any type is likely to intensify the conflict. This is likely to occur in situations where the issues are polarized, trust has deteriorated and the participants are in a confrontational attitude. The researcher has lost control over critical aspects of the study. When control is relinquished to other individuals or groups, the study is prone to manipulation and bias. Statistical projections are needed.
Focus groups do not involve sufficient numbers of participants nor does the sampling strategy lend itself to statistical projections. You cannot ensure the confidentiality of sensitive information. Focus Groups: a practical guide for Applied Research (3rd. Krueger and Mary Anne casey game Theory behavior Modeling analysis see also. Army research Institute for the behavioral and Social Sciences above see also influence ops theory on Influence Operations page see also psychology of terrorism at the center for Terrorism Studies see also research and theory page at the center for Regional and Cultural Studies, especially. Air Force to review relevant ios individual, organizational, and societal modeling research programs in the various research communities, evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the programs and their methodologies, determine which have the greatest potential for military use, and provide guidance for the design.
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Org (WPO) Polling Organizations -. And World, yale University library public Opinion Polls on the Internet, listed by University of miami libraries Reference manual on Scientific evidence, second Edition ( local copy ), federal Judicial Center, 2000 How Science works ( local copy ), by goodstein, compares Francis Bacons Scientific. Consider using when (see link for expanded text) Insights are needed in exploratory or resumes preliminary studies. There is a communication or understanding gap between groups or categories of people. The purpose is to margaret uncover factors relating to complex behavior or motivation. Focus groups can provide insight into complicated topics where opinions or attitudes are conditional or where the area of concern relates to multifaceted behavior or motivation. You desire ideas to emerge from the group. Groups possess the capacity to become more than the sum of their parts, to exhibit a synergy that individuals alone cannot possess. The researcher needs additional information to prepare for a large-scale study.
Without adequate preparation for these new cognitive requirements, the Army will be ill-equipped to use, much less capitalize on, the new technologies. Findings suggest that substantial changes will occur with regard to seven macrocognitive activities: the sensemaking and coordination functions, and the processes of maintaining Common Ground, developing Mental Models, Uncertainty management, Attention Management, and Turning leverage points into courses of Action Digital asap skills Training for Net-Centric. Digital information such as video sensors and detailed map overlays will replace probabilistic cues from the environment." "While the decisions themselves do not differ, the decision-making process and the information used are different with digital information than with traditional cues. Decision making with digital information is more analytical." "Spatial orientation will become a key issue and skill in the electronic battlefield." Training for Future Operations: Digital leaders' Transformation Insights ( local copy ), nov 2002, ari report Symbols symbology see also semiotics on the perception. Media theory see also public affairs mass media posted at the air War College gateway to the Internet Media theory - related topics, listed at wikipedia the media and Communications Studies Site communication, cultural and Media studies (ccms) - database of info on the subject. Of Colorado Two views of Communication: Transmission ritual, by carey - from James Carey, communication as Culture: Essays on Media and Society. Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1985. Democracy in the Age of Information Community, interactivity, anonymity, and Media theory, mit an Analysis of Kellner's Theory of Media culture, book review by hoenisch Surveys, polling, statistical Analysis Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (fcsm) Polls: An Important tool on the journalist's Workbench, foreign Press.
Networks: Emergence of a scale-free leadership Structure and Collective efficiency ( local copy ), by Anghel et al, los Alamos National Laboratory, july 2003 Advanced Knowledge Integration in Assessing Terrorist. Foreign Military Studies Office (fmso) Scientific technical Information Network (stinet) - includes search capability for many of dod research papers, including from military education institutions Air Power Australia - resources and links to resources Report of the national Science foundation Workshop on Information Theory and. Of Edinburgh One of the central issues of 21st Century Informatics will be how to link, in theory and in practice, computational perception, representation, transformation and generation processes to external worlds. The external world may be the "real" world or another computational environment that has its own character. Examples of where this issue arises include bio-mimetic robotics, computer-based visual perception, dynamic control of the interaction of robotic systems with their environment or each other, computer-based generation of external phenomena, such as images, music or actions, and agent-based interaction with other agents or humans. Army research Institute for the behavioral and Social Sciences see also ari reports on critical thinking posted at the air War College gateway to the Internet, thinking skills page see also ari reports on leadership posted at Strategic leadership Studies see also distributed Training tools. Army research Institute for the behavioral and Social Sciences Concept development for Future domains: a new Method of Knowledge Elicitation ( local copy ), by lussier and Hinkle, ari report, june 2005 During the development of operational concepts for the future combat System of Systems. This report reviews existing methods and describes a new method of knowledge elicitation to more effectively support the development of future concepts, evaluate the impact of new technology, and solve difficult problems where information and expertise is dispersed among many individuals. Interactivity, communication, and Trust: Further Studies of leadership in the Electronic Age ( local copy ), mar 2005, ari report mindprint: developing the soldiers and leaders of Objective force and beyond ( local copy ), jan 2004, ari report They information technologies will also transform.
Reasoning Under Uncertainty Group (ruug), monash University relating to doctrine and Strategy The best Emergence of noopolitik: Toward An American Information Strategy, by Arquilla and Ronfeldt, rand book, 1999 Adapting Doctrine to Knowledge-based Warfare ( local copy ), by mains, in Military review, mar-Apr 1997 Information. Current Fad?, rand issue paper, 1996 Information Operations: Wisdom Warfare for 2025, af 2025 paper Who's doing Research see also virtual worlds - research and education on Cyberspace page see also laboratories page see also behavioral influences research and theory at Behavioral Influences Analysis Center. The primacy-of-culture perspective calls for an increasing emphasis on culture, for cultural experts as campaign managers, and for the creation of indigenous canons of psychological research, as necessary to the successful exercise of intercultural influence. This paper offers a dissenting view, and calls for a rebalancing of the influence equation where culture is considered one important variable among many. Evidence is presented of persistent over-attribution to culture, of common human cognition, of universal influence tactics, and of successful influence campaigns conducted by agents who are neither indigenous nor cultural experts." An Introduction to social Influence - including Defining the Information within Military Information Operations. Pcast responsible for nitrd ( local copy ), ews release On September 30, President Bush signed an Executive order designating the Presidents council of Advisors on Science and Technology (pcast) as the advisory panel that will be responsible for overseeing the networking and Information Technology. Networking and Information Technology research and development (nitrd) President's Information Technology Advisory committee (pitac) Behavioral Influences Analysis Center (biac), air University national Air and Space Intelligence center (nasic) Behavioral Influences Analysis division. Army research Institute for the behavioral and Social Sciences - see ari section below usmc center For Advanced Operational Culture learning (caocl) - posted following Cultural Awareness for Military Operations, concepts and Proposals: usmc cultural Awareness Working Group briefing Cognition in Natural Settings: The cultural.
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See also info cyberwar and other, congressional Research Service reports see also, boyd (ooda loop) and effects-based ops theory and other military/strategy theories at the, awc military Theory page see also laboratories page see also perception page, especially memes, knowledge representation and semiotics and subliminal. Influence Operations page see also behavioral influences research at, behavioral Influences Analysis Center see also psychology of terrorism at the, center for Terrorism Studies see also research and theory page, especially comparisons, behavior, language theory at the, center for Regional and Cultural Studies see also. Concepts on the awc gateway to the Internet see also neuro-linguistic Programming (NLP) storytelling, interviewing and more at awc communication skills page see also game theory, decision making, critical thinking, intuition, and more at the awc thinking skills page see also cognitive biases and psychological. It is deadly as well as useful. executive summary, air Force 2025 report Research, Writing, and the mind of the Strategist, by foster, in joint Force quarterly 50 Cyber questions every airman Can Answer ( pdf local copy ), by jabbour, afrl information Operations Primer, us army war College Information as Power. The realm of Information Dominance: beyond Information War, by hayes and Alberts - includes Typology of Information and Science (data, information, understanding, knowledge, wisdom - and scientific ladder as well) Nature of Interactions (spectrum from cooperation to war) Arenas of Interaction (from religion to military). Social penetration theory shows the importance of providing increasingly-personal information in ever-greater degrees to establish a meaningful relationship. Information manipulation theory outlines four factors amount disclosed, quality, relevance, and clarity that are important in the release of information, as the factors can alarm receivers to purposeful or inadvertent information manipulation and/or deception. Inoculation theory purports that forthrightness by the source in delivering bad news might over time curtail negative receiver reactions to bad news, at least to some degree.